8/15/12: Baby You Can Drive My Car

Proposition: By January 1, 2032, at least 60% of American car owners will own a car that can mostly or completely drive itself.

Odds: Even

Stakes: $1,000.00 (in 2012 dollars)

Bettors: Me, Levy

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Many people have written more and better on this subject than I,* so I'll spare you the details. Here are some key pieces of information that led me to take this bet:

1. The technology for robotic driving ALREADY EXISTS. Google has been driving its fleet of robocars (or, really, the cars have been driving themselves) around California and Nevada for the last several years. The cars have logged almost 200,000 miles and the only accident was caused by the driver of another vehicle.This isn't a matter of having to invent new technologies or find a shortcut; the only issues now are polishing the existing technology and getting the cars down to a market-competitive price.

2. Small pieces of what would, in total, amount to a fully robotic car are already coming standard on new luxury vehicles. As early as 2009 you could get driver assist and rear view cameras on Benzes and Beamers. Now, in 2012, we're starting to see these features on Hondas, Toyotas and Nissans. The next step toward autonomous driving will be the phasing in of features like warning systems and GPS point-to-point navigation at speeds under 30 mph, something that is already happening in luxury models and which will have trickled down to cheaper lines by the end of the decade. From there, it's an easy leap to mostly autonomous driving, which will be bundled as a suite of features that effectively wrest control from the driver. I see this coming to pass sometime in the mid 2020s.

3. The law will not prove an insurmountable obstacle. Robot cars are ALREADY LEGAL in Nevada, and several other states are racing to legalize them (despite the fact that not a single robot car has been sold) because of lucrative offers by companies like Google, GM and Nissan to set up testing and R&D facilities in those states.

4. People intrinsically like the idea. Imagine doing the crossword, eating your bagel and drinking your coffee in your car on the way to work. Imagine your car as your designated driver. Imagine doing...well...anything in your car while it gets you to where you need to go.

Obviously anything can happen between now and 2032, but I'm looking forward to that early January dinner at Per Se (assuming it's still around), courtesy of Levy.

*www.NextBigFuture.com and www.SingularityHub.com have plenty of informative posts on the trajectory of automated driving.